RDT NBA Schedule Analysis – Week 16

Updated: January 29, 2018

The Run Home

We are now past the half way mark of the season in terms of games played for each team. With the Fantasy fixturing shenanigans of All-Star weekend, plus a multi-week last round to navigate, I thought I would take the schedule analysis a little more long term. There will still be the focus on the upcoming fortnight, as there has been all year, however I am going to drop the lockout schedule. This will be replaced by a look at the total remaining games for the season for each team.

The goal of this is to help you decide who to bring in when you have a 50/50 scenario. You will be able to see which player has the most potential games remaining in the season, and make a call from there. Please note that the total games remaining are as of lockout being lifted on a Monday afternoon/night.

Let’s start with the good. The 76ers are clearly ahead of the pack, with an extra 2 games over the competition. This is great news for their two Fantasy relevant players – Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. Embiid’s minutes restriction has been lifted for a while now, and coach Brett Brown has stated that his sitting out back to back games rule “not far away” from being lifted also.

Embiid is an intriguing proposition in RDT NBA. He is currently ranked 12th overall for Centres in terms of total points. This obviously doesn’t pain the whole picture due to the games (he has only played 33 games, compared with the players above him who have all played at least 39) and minutes restrictions stated above. If we look at average points, he jumps all the way up to 5th in Centres with 29.1 Fppg. Sitting ahead of him are Anthony Davis (34.5), DeMarcus Cousins (32.6), Karl-Anthony Towns (30.2) and Andre Drummond (29.7).

For fun and games, let’s extrapolate out these averages for each players remaining games of the season to see who will end up with the most total points.

Anthony Davis – 1138

DeMarcus Cousins – 1076

Joel Embiid – 1048

Andre Drummond – 1010

Karl-Anthony Towns – 906

So the question then becomes, do you take Embiid over Davis and Cousins. Until the back to back restriction is lifted, the answer is a definitive no. Once it is lifted however, it becomes a much more interesting decision.

On the flip side of the equation, Minnesota and San Antonio have at least two games less than the rest of the competition. I think there is still value in having players like Karl-Anthony Towns and Jimmy Butler, however you can see from the calculations above that KAT remaining scoring capacity is lower than some of the other guys at the same position.  Butler is currently behind only James Harden for overall points, and averages 26.1 Fppg. This puts him 3rd (behind Harden, 32.8, and his Rockets team mate Chris Paul, 28.2) at the SG position.

As for San Antonio, just don’t do it. Not only do they have the least amount of games, Coach Popovich will randomly rest players in the lead up to the playoffs.

Schedule Breakdown

Trade Targets – 8 Game Teams

Atlanta (Min, Char, @Bos, @NYK) – Trying to find a Fantasy relevant Hawks player at this point of the season is like trying to convince your significant other that watching 6 hours of basketball on a Saturday morning is a good time investment. It is hard work, not fun, and ultimately pointless. So, just spend 10 minutes watching the Spud Webb in the 1986 dunk contest instead.

Boston (@Den, NYK, Atl, Por) – If you are looking for some value this week, Kyrie Irving is your man. ‘Uncle Drew’ will be priced around $10 million, so he is significantly cheaper than a James Harden or Russell Westbrook. He is only averaging 23.4Fppg this season, but does have the capacity to get those 30+ games that we love. The Celts have a pretty good run with 3 home games, and no back to backs. In 2 games so far in Week 15, he has scored 28 against the Lakers and 27 against the Clippers. There are better options out there who will score you more points, but you will pay an extra couple of million to get them.

Charlotte (@Ind, @Atl, Ind, @Pho) – Some people who will go un-named (@OTLSCorey) ridiculed me for my selection of Dwight Howard in Week 15. Using the same value based selection process as Kyrie Irving offers above, Dwight has rewarded those coaches who picked him up with two scores of 34 so far in Week 15. With a reasonable fixture, including the actively tanking Hawks and the actively sucking Suns, he is once again a reasonable option. He will hopefully score around the same amount of Fantasy points for the week in 4 games, as the Pelicans boys will in 3. He won’t get you the massive scores that an Antonio Davis or Boogie Cousins are capable of, but he is also $3 million cheaper than those guys.

Indiana (Cha, Mem, @Cha, Phi) – First time All-Star Victor Oladipo is the only real option here. Currently owned by 29% of coaches, Dipo is averaging 25.6Fppg for the season. Still priced at a juicy $11 million, he is well worth bringing in if you don’t already have him. Based on my head to head match ups in Week 15 though, there are not many active Fantasy coaches without the Pacers star.

Portland (@LAC, Chi, @Tor, @Bos) – Unfortunately for Fantasy coaches, Damian Lillard has been selected as an All-Star by the coaches. Last season, he missed selection and went a massive F-you run to prove he belonged. He did eventually play that All-Star game as an injury replacement player. Lillard is priced around the same value as Kyrie Irving, but his run this week is a bit tougher, with 3 away games, and a back to back. Blazers team mate CJ McCollum is $2 million cheaper than Lillard, and has actually had a better 3 week run than. If you are REALLY struggling for cash, he could be a good option for you. Just be aware that his Fantasy floor is quite low (he only scored 9 Fantasy points against Denver this week.

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Written by Archie Keeler (@OTLSArchie)

Header graphic by Corey Wade Media (@OTLSCorey)

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