Dream Team NBA Schedule Analysis – Week 6

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Updated: January 24, 2021

When do you cull your rookies? That is a key question in any Fantasy game. The obvious answer is when they have maxed out in price. Unfortunately, with no access to Break Evens in Dream Team NBA, determining that point is much harder. Using some (very) basic maths, we can attempt to work out whether a rookie has matched out in price.

Looking at the price changes for players, we can see that the ‘magic number’ that determines a price rise is somewhere between $450,000 and $470,000. In week 4, in general, players that are averaging less than $450,000 per point went up in value, and players that were averaging more than $470,000 per point went down in value. 

So, that being said, let’s have a look at what some of the more popular rookies are doing. Please note that these prices are as of the end of Week 4. If I get a chance, I will update the details as of the end of Week 5 once lockout is lifted.

Tyrese Haliburton$330,577

LaMelo Ball$343,026

Xavier Tillman$239,895

Jae’sean Tate$296,030

James Wiseman$359,999

Patrick Williams$392,422

Deni Avdija$401,627

Payton Pritchard$355,000

Anthony Edwards$470,105

So as you can see from that, it is pretty clear, the rookies are not maxed out (unless you are the number 1 pick). However just because they have not topped out, doesn’t mean you can’t trade them. If it means getting a mid priced player up to a genuine premium, it could still be worth looking at.

 

Schedule Breakdown

Max Game Teams – Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Indiana, LA Clippers, Miami, Minnesota, New Orleans, Sacramento, Utah

Again with this many teams with 8 games in the fortnight, you should almost have a full team of players with maximum games. The only exceptions would be any rookies/cash cows that you still have in your team. There are two teams in Week 6 that don’t play any back to back games – Brooklyn and Philadelphia. Both teams have been very Fantasy friendly this year, with each team having 3 players average over 20Fppg. Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid, James Harden, Kyrie Irving, Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are all great options this week. The Nets players are slightly higher priority to bring in as they also have 4 games in Week 7.

Something else to take not of is teams that are currently having COVID issues. Boston still have Jayson Tatum out with Covid. He hasn’t hit the court since January 8th, but is close to a return. Miami still have Jimmy Butler and Avery Bradley out. Memphis and Washington were also forced to postpone some of their games this week after not having enough players to put a team on the court. At this point, it appears that both teams should be fine to play their first game of Week 6, but as we all know, this situation can changge very quickly.

Oh Captain, My Captain!

Let’s face it, there are a tonne of Captain options this week, however when looking at the schedule, a couple stand out. As mentioned above, Kevin Durant and the Nets have 4 games this week, with no back to back games. This significantly reduces the chances that Durant get’s rested. The Nets play Miami at home (he scored 30 against them on Sunday) before hitting the road for games against Atlanta, OKC and Washington. You could also look at team mates Kyrie Irving and James Harden. Irving scored very well against the heat (33 points) however Harden only scored 17 points. This was largely due to him being a playmaker in the first half, and barely putting up a shot, preferring to facilitate his team mates instead.

The other player I like as a Captain option is Nikola Jokic. Now, this is not a revelation to be sure, give that the Joker leads the league in both total points and Fppg. The Nuggets start off their week with an away game against the Mavs and fellow international star Luka Doncic. It is worth noting that Kristaps Porzingas missed the last game for Dallas, and if he doesn’t play in this matchup, life will be a lot easier for Jokic. Following that game, they play away games against Miami and San Antonio, before finishing the week with a home game against Utah.

 Steph Curry, Domantas Sabonis, Nikola Vucevic, Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Damien Lillard and Bradley Beal should also be considered.

Keeler’s Captain Choice – Nikola Jokic (Den)

The only reason I am taking Jokic over Durant is what I observed watching the Nets game on Sunday. James Harden largely deferred to Irving and Durant in this game, preferring to set his team mates up rather than look to score himself. How is this a bad thing for Durant? Well, to be honest, I can’t see it lasting. The question with the ‘Big 3’ in Brooklyn was always going to be how are the shots going to be distributed, and who will take a back seat to the other two players. Sunday it was Harden, who’s to say it won’t be Durant this week? Not great logic, I agree, but Jokic is a slam dunk this week, so I will take the certainty there.

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Written by Archie Keeler (@OTLSArchie)

Header graphic by Corey Wade Media (@CSWMedia_)

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