RDT NBA Schedule Analysis – Week 5

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Updated: November 10, 2018

We often talk about using as much data as you can to make an informed decision as to the best trades you can make each week. Unfortunately though, one thing you can’t predict is injuries. Last week, all the data pointed to Russell Westbrook having a great week. Oklahoma City had a 4 game week, and the new Weekly Opponent Difficulty (WOD) data showed that they had a Fantasy friendly run.

Enter Anthony Davis’ foot. Russ came down on AD’s boot and his ankle turned horribly in the wrong direction. It looked bad originally, but the good news for Westbrook is that X-rays came back negative, meaning only ligament damage. Unfortunately for those coaches who played (and even more-so for those who captained) Russ, it was the first game of a 4 game week, and there was no way he was going to play in the other 3 games. This means a loss of likely 100 RDT points over the course of the week. That hurts coaches just as much as the injury hurt Russ. OK, maybe not, but it still hurts.

Looking forward to Week 5, the Golden State Warriors have a 5 game week. Normally, this would mean that Steph Curry is a lock for your team. However he too is now under an injury cloud. He left the game early on Friday with an groin strain, and it has been diagnosed as ‘mild to moderate’ by the team. He won’t play in the Warriors next game against the Nets, and has to be considered doubtful for the double header to start Week 5. Keep a close eye on the injury report if you are thinking of picking him up.

But enough of the bad stuff. Let’s look at the flip side of a player coming back from injury. San Antonio’s Derrick White made a welcome return from his preseason injury this week. He will be the starting Point Guard for the Spurs, and is rookie priced at $2.65 million. In his first game back, he did get the start, but only played 16 minutes for just 1 Fantasy point. The Spurs only have one more game this week, so his price won’t change for Week 5. Don’t expect too much out of him for the next couple of weeks. His minutes will still be low as they manage his workload and he gets his body used to the pace of the NBA this season. He is definitely a downgrade target for your bench. If you are running with a Trae Young or Derrick Rose, you could look at grabbing the cash and downgrading to White. Both of those guys will outscore White, but it doesn’t matter if they are on your bench. They also still have a bit more cash to make, but you won’t be losing too much by trading them now – especially if it means you can get to a premium on your court. If you don’t get him this week, he should still be priced at under $3.5 million next week and you can grab him then.

After receiving good feedback in regards to the WOD statistic, we are now tracking EVERY team’s WOD EVERY week. The WOD tracks how many Fantasy points each team’s opponent is giving up, and shows the teams that have the best chance for high Fantasy scores for the week. We have adjusted it slightly so that it only takes into account the last 10 games for each team. This will give a more accurate representation of the teams current form. 10 games is approximately 3 weeks in Fantasy terms, so it still allows for a good sample size, whilst dropping out scores from early in the season.

The table below shows the obvious – if a team has more games, the WOD is higher. Where it comes in useful is if you are deciding between a couple of players that have a 4 game week, potentially you would select the player with the higher WOD. It should definitely be taking into account when selecting your captain.

 


Schedule Breakdown

 

 

Trade Targets (8 Game Teams)

Golden State (@LAC, Atl, @Hou, @Dal, @SAS) – WOD 703

This week is one of the rare 5 game weeks this season. There is however some concerns in the Warriors camp. Steph Curry and Draymond Green are both injured and doubtful for the next couple of games. Andre Iguodala is still on the sidelines, as is off-season acquisition DeMarcus Cousins. This leaves one player only to look at – Kevin Durant. He needs to be in your team, and will be the most selected captain option this week.

They also take on the Texas Trio Trip (Houston, Dallas and San Antonio) in a tough road swing where players could once again be rested or have limited minutes.

Brooklyn (@Min, Mia, @Was, LAC) – WOD 575

The Nets are putting together a solid season, without any real ‘star’ players. Caris LeVert is the team’s leading scorer in RDT NBA with just over 20Fppg. Unfortunately even though there are some Fantasy friendly games here, there is just no Fantasy relevance on the Nets, you can find better options this week.

Memphis (Uta, @Mil, Sac, @Min) – WOD 546

The most Fantasy relevant play from the Grizzlies is rookie Forward Jaren Jackson Jr. JJJ has been frustrating for owners with his output varying greatly largely due to his inclination to commit a lot of fouls. This is impacting his time on court, and consequently his Fantasy output. There is definitely a case to argue that you could start him on your court, but just be prepared for a stinker or two.

New Orleans (@Tor, @Min, NYK, Den) – WOD 545

Anthony Davis is once again doing Anthony Davis things. ‘The Brow’ continues to dominate the competition despite a couple of down games. He easily leads all players for average RDT NBA scoring, a full 4 points above Giannis Antetokounmpo. Apart from Kevin Durant, he is your number 1 trade target this week. If you can’t get to AD, you could do worse than look at team mate Nikola Mirotic. The 27 year old Montenegrin is having a magnificent year, averaging 27Fppg over the first 4 weeks. There are some concerns around a sprained ankle, so keep an eye on the injury report before bringing him in.

San Antonio (@Sac, @Pho, @LAC, GSW) – WOD 572

Most coaches would have traded out DeMar DeRozan last week due to the Spurs two game week. This means that he should be well rested and ready to launch into a very Fantasy friendly draw. They play the Kings and the Suns, who are both giving up a lot of points, before a tough game against the Clippers in a back to back. They finish the week with the Warriors who will be playing their second back to back of the week. As mentioned above, you can also look at rookie priced Derrick White.

Philadephia (@Mia, @Orl, Uta, @Cha) – WOD 545

The Sixers are definitely trusting the process and have accumulated a nice 8-5 record to sit 3rd in the East behind Toronto and Milwaukee. Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are the two leaders from both a statistical and a basketball standpoint. The team is in the top 5 in the NBA in Rebounds per game, Blocks per game and Assists per game largely due to the effort of these two superstars.

Toronto (NOP, Det, @Bos, @Chi) – WOD 560

The Raptors are currently sitting atop the Eastern Conference with an 11-1 record. The combination of Kyle Lowry and Kawhi Leonard (when playing) has been extremely effective. Throw in a rejuvenated Serge Ibaka and solid minutes from role player Jonas Valanciunas, Paskal Siakam and Danny Green and you have a formidable (if hard to spell!) combination. Lowry and Leonard are the two to look at. It is likely that Leonard will miss the back to back game in Chicago as the Raptors medical staff continue to be cautious with him on his recovery from the knee injury that basically wiped him out for all of last season.

Utah (@Mem, @Dal, @Phi, @Bos) – WOD 529

The Jazz are struggling to find their groove at the moment and are sitting just outside the playoff race with a 6-6 record in the Western Conference. Joe Ingles started the season on fire, only to suffer a massive cool down, then heat up again in the game against the Kyrie-less Boston Celtics. Ingles scored an equal career high 27 points in the game and finished with 38 Fantasy points.

However it is Centre Rudy Gobert that you should be looking at. He is averaging over 30Fppg over the first 4 weeks and has contributed scores of 25, 33 and 36 Fantasy points in Week 4. He is now appropriately priced at around $13 million, and will have tough matchups against Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan and Joel Embiid this week. He is not highly owned, so could be a good player of difference for you in you games this week.

Oh Captain, My Captain!

Kevin Durant – WOD 703 – There is really only 1 logical selection for captain this week, and that is the back to back finals MVP. With Steph Curry and Draymond Green both under injury clouds, a lot of the offensive and defensive load will be put onto KD. The only concern will be if there are blowout games, he may sit for an extended period. Oh, and have I mentioned that he has 5 games this week? He will be the captain for 85% of coaches this week.

If you can’t get KD in, or you want to roll the dice that KD will have a stinker of a week and you can jump up the rankings significantly by going someone different – here are a few options you could look at.

Karl-Anthony Towns – WOD 545 –  The KAT is finally showing what he is capable of after a slow start to the season. Understandable given the drama that has been surrounding the team since mid September. He has had a mixed week in Week 4 with scores of 40 against the Clippers, 14 against the Lakers and 45 against the Kings. He has the potential to go big, but there are more consistent options out there.

Anthony Davis – WOD 545 – AD is who you are looking at if you can’t get KD. If you can get both, you can expect some monster scores.

Ben Simmons – WOD 545 – Ben Simmons is proving to the league that his rookie season was no fluke, following up with an impressive sophmore effort. He is averaging 15pg to go with 9 rebounds, 8 assists and 1 block per game to fill out the stat line each night.

Joel Embiid – WOD 545 – Simmons’ team mate Joel Embiid has (hopefully) put his injuries behind him and is going full beast mode in season 2018/19. No longer hampered by minutes or games restrictions, we are now seeing what the big man is truly capable of. His Fantasy output of 34.5Fppg is 3rd in the league and there is no signs of him slowing down. Week 5 sees him come up against Hassan Whiteside, Nikola Vucevic, Rudy Gobert and Cody Zeller. 3 out of those 4 games will be touch, but expect Embiid to still go at 30+ Fppg.

Kyle Lowry – WOD 560 – Lowry has quietly been putting together a very nice Fantasy season. With DeRozan gone and Leonard not yet playing at full capacity, Lowry has shouldered much of the offensive load. He is averaging 18 points and 11 assists per game. This has helped him to his average of 28.4Fppg, and he is still slightly under priced for his output. If you are looking for value at the guard position, Lowry is your man.

DeMar DeRozan – WOD 560 – DeRozan is sitting at 12th overall for Fppg. The move to Texas has not slowed him down as he continues to dominate across the statistical categories.

Rudy Gobert – WOD 529 – As mentioned above, Gobert has a few tough match ups this week but I expect him to continue to put up good numbers. He is shooting a league leading 72% from the field currently, which is likely to drop as it is unsustainable. He is also in the top 5 for Rebounds per game, True Shooting Percentage and 2nd Chance Points per game. All this means he is cleaning the glass better than a career window-wiper.

Keeler’s Captain – Kevin Durant (GSW)

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Written by Archie Keeler (@OTLSArchie)

Header graphic by Corey Wade Media (@CoreySWade)

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