RDT NBA Schedule Analysis – Week 4

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Updated: November 4, 2018

Everyone know that in any Fantasy format, information and statistics are a key ingredient to selecting a successful team. For a while now, we have been providing schedule information based on the number of games each team plays in a given week. Now we are ready to take it a step further. The two tables below show the average overall points scored and conceded by each team in the NBA. Please note that this article is typically written on Saturday or Sunday, so the numbers will change slightly before lockout ends on a Monday afternoon.

Let’s take a very simplistic view. If a team has a high average score FOR, then they are a Fantasy relevant team, and likely have at least two players that you can look to include in your RDT NBA team. Whilst this is interesting information, the statistic that is most relevant for Fantasy coaches is the average points AGAINST. You can analyse this data, and compare it with a teams schedule, and see which teams are playing opponents that are giving up a lot of points. Or, you could simply read a bit further in the article, and we have done all the hard work for you!

We have come up with a one more tidbit of information that can help you make your decision – let’s call it the Weekly Opponent Difficulty (WOD). This is a pretty simple number. It is the average points conceded by the teams opponents for the week. The higher the number, the more likely it is that the team will have a good scoring week.

Take this weeks run for Orlando. They finish against Washington, who are conceding the most Fantasy points per game of any team in the NBA. Now this can be handy information, but keep in mind that there may be other factors that have caused a team to concede a lot of points. Washington have been playing extremely poorly – no arguments there – however they have been without their off-season Centre aquisition and former NBA Defensive Player of the Year – Dwight Howard. Dwight played his first game of the season this week, and the Wizards still gave up 189 Fantasy points in the game. It will be interesting to see if this changes as Dwight gets more games under his belt.

So take this data, as well as all your other research, and use it to make your trade decisions each week.


Schedule Breakdown

 

Trade Targets (8 Game Teams)

Boston (@Den, @Pho, @Uta, @Por) – WOD 137

The Celtics are still finding their feet as a team in season 2018/19. The Eastern Conference Finalists from last season were expected to be a juggernaugt in the East this year, with injured stars Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward joining young stars Jason Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and All-Star big man Al Horford. It hasn’t quite been as seamless as coach Brad Stevens would have hoped, with the team still trying to figure out rotations and shot selection. Hayward is still on a minutes restrictions as he returns from the horrific leg injury he suffered in the first game of last season. Irving has averaged just 15Fppg over the first two weeks, but Week 3 has shown some improvement with scores of 34 and 32 in the first two games. He is very nicely priced at around $10 million, so if you need some value at the PG position, he will fit quite nicely.

Miami (@Det, SAS, Ind, Was) – WOD 138

Miami are just not Fantasy relevant. Rodney McGruder started in a blaze of glory, but has slowed down considerably in the last few games. He still offers some value as he is priced under $5 million, but don’t expect too much from him. The biggest move from the Heat may come if/when they trade for Jimmy Butler. If Butler goes to Miami, he will be the primary player, and his Fantasy value will be huge.

Orlando (Cle, Det, Was, @NYK) – WOD 145

It looks to be another tough season for the Magic. They are currently sitting 11th in the Eastern Conference with just 2 wins for the season. Again, there is not much to look at here from a Fantasy perspective. Nikola Vucevic is having a fantastic year, averaging 30Fppg over the first 2 weeks. He has also scored 29 points in both his games so far this week. Hi is eligible as PF/C and is priced at around $11.5 million, so could be a good downgrade target for coaches with Joel Embiid.

Golden State (Mem, Mil, Bkn) – WOD 128

Golden State are on this list purely for the fact that they have a 5 game week in Week 5. You will need to weigh up whether it is worth bringing in one of the Warriors players a week early. Plan your trades accordingly. You will need to have both Kevin Durant and Steph Curry in Week 5. If need be, grab one of them this week, and one of them next week. Even though the Warriors only have 3 games, they are currently the highest Fantasy scoring team in the competition. 3 games from KD or Steph will still score you more points than 4 games from the majority of the rest of the NBA players.

Oh Captain, My Captain!

We have a lot of options for teams with 4 games this week, so let’s have a look at the best of them. Once again, you will see the WOD for each player to gauge the scoring potential of their opponents.

Kyrie Irving – WOD 137 – Kyrie is starting to find his feet now after 8 games this season. His form line is trending upwards, and he is starting to provide some consistency for his frustrated coaches. He average 12.3Fppg in Week 1, 17.6Fppg in Week 2 and 33Fppg so far in Week 3.

Nikola Jokic – WOD 125– Whilst Jokic is having an absolute beast of a season, he plays the 3 hardest teams to score against this week – Boston, Memphis and Milwaukee. Throw in a game against a Brooklyn team that is middle of the table, and you can find better options for your Captain this week.

Blake Griffin – WOD 143 – Blake has been a revelation this season. He is regularly scoring over 30Fppg, and isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. There is always the injury concern with Blake, but you can’t factor that in when choosing your Captain. He hasn’t had any niggles this season, and there has been no talk of resting or minutes restrictions. He should definitely be in your calculations this week.

Andre Drummond – WOD 143 – Griffin’s team mate Andre Drummond has been quietly going about his business again this season. Averaging 25.6Fppg over the first two weeks, he has once again been a defensive beast. Keep in mind that Detroit have a 1 game week in Week 5, so Drummond and Griffin are 1 week options only.

James Harden – WOD 130 – The Rockets were expected to be one of the power houses of the NBA this season, however they have struggled early on. They are currently sitting on just 2 wins and are placed 13th in the Western Conference. Carmello Anthony is a shell of his past self, and they are not getting the production they need from their supporting players. Harden is doing what he can by averaging 31Fppg, and Chris Paul and Clint Capela have also been solid. There is talk of the Rockets trading for Jimmy Butler, and if this happens, Harden could be one of the players whose scores are affected the most.

Giannis Antetokounmpo – WOD 130 – The Greek Freak missed on game in Week 3 with a concussion, but showed no signs of sluggishness when he dropped 33 points and 11 rebounds for 35 Fantasy points against the Celtics. He is currently ranked 9th in the NBA for Fantasy Points Per Game, and should move up the list as the season progresses. Imagine if he could shoot 3 pointers! He is 1 for 17 for the season so far for a shocking 5.9% from beyond the arc.

Russell Westbrook – WOD 148 – The Thunder are another team that is struggling to find their groove early in the 2018/19 season. They are currently sitting just outside the playoffs in 9th spot in the Western Conference with a 4-4 record. They started on a 4 game losing streak, and are now on a 4 game win streak. They have a good run of opponents in Week 4 which should see him average close to a triple double for the week. He should improve on his current season average of 26Fppg over the first 2 weeks. He has scored 35+ Fantasy points in each of his games so far in Week 3

Nikola Vucevic – WOD 145 – As mentioned earlier, the Magic have a good schedule for Fantasy in Week 4. Vucevic is by far the pick of the bunch on the Orlando team. He will be a good Player of Difference for you if you pick him up, as he is currently has very low ownership. Even team mate Aaron Gordon is owned by more coaches, and he is averaging about half of what Vucevic is.

Keeler’s Captain – Russell Westbrook (OKC)

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Written by Archie Keeler (@OTLSArchie)

Header graphic by Corey Wade Media (@CoreySWade)

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