AFL Supercoach Talk – Round 7, 2016

Updated: May 3, 2018

AFL Supercoach Captain Predictions – Round 5
Greetings one and everyone!
After finally getting over the flu last week, I had to travel to very Far East Gippsland in Victoria and I was unable to find a carrier pigeon who could point me in the general direction of any internet reception.
I apologise for the lack of an article for last week.

However, I feel like I need to change it up a bit.
Since we are halfway towards the bye rounds, I feel it’s necessary to help you out in general with captains choices and not just go position by position.
So let’s take a new approach!

Also, thanks Max Gawn. I put the VC on Macrae and thought that was enough. Then you have to go and score 27 points more than him. Grrr. I can’t disrespect that beard though…

In Red Hot Form
A. Treloar (Coll) – SC Projected: 139
Current Avg: 116.0 (Rank: 10)
Last 3 Games: 120, 127, 149 (Avg: 132.0)
Best score vs. Brisbane: 169 (Round 8, 2016)
16 K, 20 HBs, 4 Mrk, 3 Goals.
I will freely admit, after Treloar was averaging 100 and his highest score was 108 leading into Round 4, I thought his season was shot and it was over for him as a player for 2018. But Supercoach and AFL really does work in mysterious ways. In his last 3 outings he has run rings around his taggers and managed to win the Anzac medal.
I can only fathom that his tremendous run with good scores will continue as his average against Brisbane in the last 3 years has been 143 (which includes the mammoth score listed above).
Even though Richmond showed you can stop the onslaught of the Magpies, you cannot stop the freakishly talented train that is Adam Treloar.

B. Deledio (GWS) – SC Projected: 111
Current Avg: 94.8 (Rank: 59)
Last 3 Games: 115, 153, 111 (Avg: 126.3)
Best score vs. Geelong: 115 (Round 18, 2011)
12 K, 22 HBs, 6 Mrk.
Holy back spasm in a sunken lounge chair Deledio! Where the hell did this form come from?!
After 10 straight games under 100 Supercoach that stems all the way back to Round 15, 2016, you finally get some good games under your belt.
My only concern is that although these are good scores, he hasn’t broken through for more than 30 disposals yet this year. Ironically he scored 99 in Round 15, 2016 where he did amass 30 touches against the power.
Now he has gone 28, 29, 28 touches respectively over the last 3 weeks (with 11 marks last week) but it honestly feels like Deledio can go up another gear. The consistency will be broken eventually, but only time will tell if he will put the foot down and take off or cough, splutter and stall on the start line.
(After writing up this section, the writer understands that Deledio has been ruled out for Round 7. The writer feels stupid but also feels that Deledio’s inclusion is still justified.)

He’s so cold, he’s drinking water and passing ice cubes!
JP. Kennedy (Syd) – SC Projected: 94
Current Avg: 85.8 (Rank: 100)
Last 3 Games: 46, 59, 125 (Avg: 76.7)
Best score vs. North Melb: 161 (Round 10, 2016)
9 K, 26 HBs, 12 Tckls, 1 Goal.
I really don’t know what to say about the Sydney Midfield this year. It really looks like Hannebery, Kennedy and Parker have all been replaced by Heeney. And I do mean ALL of them because Heeney is the best averaging player in the Swans colours.
In 2015 & ‘16, there were 4 players averaging over 100 for the whole season. In 2014 there were 5.
Now in 2017 there was only 1, but the top 5 were averaging more than 97 so I can still call them a cohesive unit.
The entire sydney midfield is somehow still being held together thanks to Heeney, but Hannebery needs to get better, Kennedy needs to continue his current form that he showed against Geelong, Parker just needs to have a Parker week.
(Definition: to have a “parker week” is to be in inverse form to what you were last week. If a player scored 50 last week and 175 this week/165 last week and 40 this week. I started using this term from his run from Round 9 to Round 15 of the 2016 season. I could have used it for any other player, but Parker got the term for me.)

Z. Tuohy (Geel) – SC Projected: 66
Current Avg: 75.3 (Rank: 154)
Last 3 Games: 91, 51, 25 (Avg: 55.7)
Best score vs. GWS Giants: 88 (Round 10, 2013)
10 K, 7 HBs, 4 Tckls, 2 Goals.
In all honesty, Tuohy should not be on this list. He hasn’t had a bad season until the last 2 games. A solid 25 last week thanks to 13 disposals at 38% efficiency did not help his chances to reclaim his 88 average from last year.
In fact, it is bad that he is coming up against one of the teams that he scores the least against next round, which includes a 55 in Round 23 last year when most people were relying on him to get them a solid score for their respective grand final Supercoach teams.
It might not be much of a drop, but Tuohy has dropped a full 0.2 points per minute in scoring. You might be thinking “wow, 0.2 points a minute… that’s totally a lot” with the sarcasm coming so harshly through the page that it smacks me in the face. But over a 2 hour game of 120 minutes, that’s 24 points. A 24 point difference over an entire season is far too drastic. At this point, Tuohy is already 110 points behind his average of the first 2 rounds. It will be almost impossible to maintain a 90 average this year, as soon as his price goes up enough, I would highly advise to trade him out.

The Monsters Among The Giants
M. Gawn (Melb) – SC Projected: 136
Current Avg: 130.7 (Rank: 1)
Last 3 Games: 112, 151, 168 (Avg: 143.7)
Best score vs. St Kilda: 128 (Round 1, 2017)
9 K, 4 HBs, 4 Mrk, 4 Tckls, 49 HOs.
Big Max is here for one reason. His lowest score this year is 97.
It came against a lackluster Brisbane side where Stefan Martin racked up 30 disposals in the ruck contest with Gawn.
But Gawn has scored over 110 in every other game this year.
Not only is this a phenomenal statistic, but he has also currently secured the number 1 position away from Tom Mitchell and Dustin Martin. Max Gawn is currently the best Supercoach player you can have in your team right now.
He is averaging 8 Kicks, 8 Handballs, 42 Hitouts and 2 Goals a game. I would already put him down for the best ruckman in the game right now. If only it wasn’t for…

B. Grundy (Coll) – SC Projected: 132
Current Avg: 126.7 (Rank: 2)
Last 3 Games: 141, 113, 115 (Avg: 123)
Best score vs. Brisbane: 120 (Round 10, 2017)
5 K, 14 HBs, 6 Tckls, 38 HOs.
If Max Gawn is there because his lowest is 97, then Grundy deserves to be here for his lowest is 95. As soon as these two go at it on the Queen’s Birthday game their supercoach scores will either take a hit or they will both rocket the scores to the moon.
Most of the ruckmen of 2018 have taken a huge hit in their scores. To put this another way, the third ranked ruckman in terms of average for 2018 is CALLUM SINCLAIR. If that doesn’t convince you, Stefan Martin is the only other ruckman who is averaging more than 100.
When it comes to Gawn or Grundy and you really want to put the captaincy on either of them, flip a coin. You’ll be right with either one you put the Orange suit on.

Solid Recommended Seal of Approval:
Any premium playing Brisbane
Brisbane is currently the worst scoring Supercoach team in the competition.
Over the last 6 rounds, Brisbane have been outscored by their opponents by 1284 supercoach points. They are almost an entire round behind the rest of the competition.
This isn’t a knock on Brisbane as they have had some tough games this year already and losing some high profile players to clubs interstate also doesn’t help your progress. However, Brisbane hasn’t been able to cover up those holes that those players have left. Richmond exploited that weakness and nearly killed the Lions completely.
As soon as another team exploits that weakness, Brisbane will be helpless to stop it.
Collingwood can be one of those teams that can exploit that weakness.
The only players so far who can offer any sort of resistance are Robinson, Martin and Witherden who are the only players in Brisbane averaging over 90 right now. Collingwood have double that number of players and that is against quality opposition over the last few rounds too.
As soon as Brisbane gets some competition under their belt, they should be a decent team again, but until that time happens, Brisbane will be anchored to the bottom of the ladder for a long time to come and any team that plays them will be able to score a mint.
The only question on my mind, is who does Brisbane manage to beat for their first win of the season?
Written by – Chris Salcole (@OTLS_SC)
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