AFL Fantasy Schedule Analysis – Round 6

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Updated: April 27, 2018

After writing a weekly Schedule Analysis article for Real Dream Team NBA over the summer, I wondered how I could do something similar for AFL Fantasy. The goal of this article is to give Fantasy coaches a little bit of extra information to weigh up their trades for the week. If you are tossing up between bringing in one player or another, perhaps looking at the difficulty of their up-coming games will help you make a decision.

The rankings themselves are based on 3 main factors:

  1. Opponent Score Conceded – how many points does each teams’ opponent concede on average
  2. Ground Score – what is the average score of teams playing at the ground the team is playing at
  3. Opponent Score at Ground – how well does each teams’ opponent score at the ground

Whilst the entire season so far will be taken into account in terms of scoring, the actual schedule difficulty will only project for the next 6 weeks. So basically, the Schedule Difficulty Table will show how hard a teams run is over the next 6 weeks, based on the data for the season so far.

Schedule Difficulty Table

Unfortunately due to the short round, and real life work, the analysis is a bit limited this week.

More Midfield Time

These teams have the easiest runs over the next 6 weeks

Western Bulldogs

Carlton @Etihad, Gold Coast @Mars Stadium, Brisbane @Etihad, Adelaide @Adelaide Oval, Collingwood @Etihad, Melbourne @Etihad

The Bulldogs have the easiest run by a significant margin for the next 6 weeks. With 4 out of 6 games at Etihad Stadium – the 3rd easiest ground to score at – they will be protected from the elements by Ralph the Roof. At this stage, the only top 8 team they play is Adelaide, which will obviously be a tough matchup. Even that game looks to be a high scoring one, as Adelaide Oval is the second highest scoring ground in the competition.

Unfortunately for Fantasy coaches, there haven’t been a lot of great options from the Bulldogs this year. The best options are the 3 ‘Macs’ Jack Macrae (Mid, $786k, avg 117.9), Toby McLean (Mid/Fwd, $622k, avg 90.2) and Tim McEnglish (Ruck/Fwd, $341k, avg 79.2). The big question with English is not whether to trade him in – if you don’t have him already, then there is no point trying to get him in. The question for the 80,000 coaches that do have him is whether or not to play him on the field. He does have a tough run coming up in terms of opposition ruckman, with Kruezer (assuming he is fit), Witts, Martin, Jacobs, Grundy and Gawn. He is definitely going to have his work cut out for him.

Jack Macrae provides a sneaky POD over your opponent. He is owned by under 4% of the competition, and is currently the 4th highest scoring Midfielder in the competition. He also has a great record against his upcoming opponents (Carlton – 111, Gold Coast 113, Brisbane 109, Adelaide 93, Collingwood 114 and Melbourne 85) with Melbourne the only real concern.

North Melbourne

Port Adelaide @Etihad, Sydney @SCG, Richmond @Etihad, GWS @Blundstone Arena, Fremantle @Optus Stadium, Brisbane @Etihad, Geelong @GHMBA

North is another team that benefits from having Etihad Stadium as their home ground. Unfortunately, there is just no-one on the Roos worth talking about from a Fantasy perspective. Their highest averaging player is captain Jack Ziebell, on a lowly 93.2 points per game. The best bet for this team is to keep an eye out for any rookie priced players who get a game in the next few weeks.

Getting the Tag

This team has the hardest run over the next 6 weeks.

Greater Western Sydney

Brisbane @Spotless Stadium, Geelong @GHMBA, West Coast @Spotless, North Melbourne @Blundstone, Essendon @Spotless, Adelaide @Adelaide Oval

Even though they are rated as having the toughest schedule based on the data available, this is one situation where the data doesn’t tell the full story. GWS have 3 of their next 6 games at their home ground Spotless Stadium. Their first game for the season at this ground is actually this week in Round 6. Consequently, there is not the same amount of data as there is for other grounds. I expect this to change significantly next week, as GWS should give the lowly Lions a fair touch up on the weekend.

 

 


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Written by Archie Keeler (@OTLSArchie)

Header graphic by Corey Wade Media (@CoreySWade)

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