BBL Fantasy Break Evens – Round 6

By
Updated: January 8, 2018

Half way through the season, we are now coming up to the trickiest part of year when it comes to planning for byes and double game week players.  With there being 6 byes over the next 3 rounds, plus 6 teams playing double games over the next 3 rounds, planning has become paramount.  Add to that the loss of a lot of the internationals just to make it even tougher to work through.

What we have done is worked out – roughly – what the most relevant Break Evens may be going into this round.

Now for the disclaimer: these are not perfect as we do not know the exact formula.  However, we do believe we have it close enough to give us a good idea of what a players’ Break Even may be.  Do not use these as 100% correct, they are to be used as a guide to help you with trading.  Of course there are still other factors to consider, but this is one worth considering too.

Player Break Even Price
Doggett -80 $40,300
Short -78 $96,300
Nabi -21 $75,000
Swepson -15 $58,800
Rohrer -9 $26,700
Wade 1 $45,700
Cutting 9 $53,200
McCullum 14 $65,000
Maddinson 15 $43,400
Finch 16 $72,200
Silk 16 $47,400
Nevill 24 $32,300
Buttler 24 $91,500
Doolan 26 $37,300
Boyce 26 $46,700
Steketee 34 $67,400
Billings 36 $52,200
Peirson 38 $32,200
Handscomb 39 $33,100
Rashid Khan 40 $98,500
Maxwell 41 $69,600
Ahmed 41 $75,800
White 42 $70,500
Dunk 47 $67,000
Turner 47 $59,200
Willey 53 $93,300
Sams 54 $56,500
Cartwright 58 $31,700
McDermott 61 $69,300
Voges 64 $45,300
Neser 64 $86,000
Dwarshuis 65 $83,000
Archer 67 $102,300
Roy 68 $43,900
Lynn 69 $95,200
Stanlake 70 $85,100
Head 75 $67,300
Ross 76 $37,200
Botha 84 $68,300
Bravo 88 $113,400
Shah 90 $83,200
Christian 90 $59,200
Richardson 95 $70,800
Laughlin 120 $77,200
Watson 129 $96,700
Abbott 130 $69,200
McClenaghan 132 $74,600
Faulkner 135 $75,800
Tye 143 $108,400
Stoinis 149 $86,800

 

The Most Relevant

Darcy Short

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Short would have to be the number one target for this weeks DGW for those that don’t have him.  In unbelievable form and still going to go up a lot more in price.

Mitchell Swepson

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Tough to get in this round with their bye only a few rounds away, but keep a close eye on him as he has hit some form after a slow start to the tournament.

Brendan McCullum

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As with Swepson, he would be hard to get in for just this round with the Heats bye coming up.  But he is starting to show some great form so keep a close eye on him.

Jofra Archer

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Jofra is in some great form, especially for a guy that cannot yet play international cricket!  If you have the ability and opportunity to trade in two or more Hurricanes with the upcoming tougher bye rounds for this week, he has to be number 2 on the list.

Chris Lynn

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For owners it is probably too late to save this trade decision now.  All you can hope for is that he will at least hit his BE and not lose anymore cash.  With only one game left before he leaves for the Aussie ODI camp, and even that is in doubt with his troublesome calf causing more issues again, you may as well hold him now for one more week.  Shouldn’t drop too much in price with a BE of 69, but all will now depend on what he scores.

Shane Watson

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With the Thunder now starting to fall away and struggle to hold on, Watson’s form has also waivered over the past few rounds.  Luckily he hasn’t fallen too much in price yet, but it looks like he will over the coming next few games.  With the bye this week, now is the time to move him on.

Mitchell McClenaghan

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The ‘Big Beard’ has also struggled the past few games as the Thunder seem to be struggling.  With his bye this round, it would also be the perfect time to get off him.

The Bye Players

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Sydney Thunder of course have the bye this round, but there isn’t a lot there to worry too much about.  A lot of people are still rolling with a few Thunder players such as Watson, Buttler or McClenaghan, but all should be easy enough to move on as all have decent monetary value.

The DGW Players

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Hobart have this weeks DGW, but we need to be very, very careful as for the following round, they have a bye.  The two most obvious to try and work with are Darcy Short and Jofra Archer, but make sure you have a plan for week 7 as they will be on the bye with Brisbane.  The last thing you want is to have too many premium players burning money or points on the bench over the next three rounds.

The International Players

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We are now into that time of the season where the international players start to leave for their respective sides.  Here is a list of players and their details as to their movements.

Outgoing Players

1 – Aaron Finch: Round 6 against the Scorchers on the 8th is likely to be Finches last game.

2 – Travis Head: Has possibly already played his last game as his round 6 game is on the 9th vs the Stars.  Should play but we are getting mixed answers from all over the place on this one.

3 – Chris Lynn: Is the only player that has given permission to miss the start of the ODI camp for the Aussies allowing him to play on the 1oth vs the Thunder.  Biggest issue here of course is his ongoing injuries and relevant price drops.

4 – Jhye Richardson: Round 6 against the Renegades on the 8th is likely to be Richardson’s last game.  However keep an eye on him if you are interested.  In reality he is probably the 13th man in the squad so may be released regularly to play.

5 – Marcus Stoinis: Has possibly already played his last game as his round 6 game is on the 9th vs the Strikers.

6 – Andrew Tye: Round 6 against the Renegades on the 8th will be Tye’s last game.

7 – Adam Zampa: Has possibly already played his last game as his round 6 game is on the 9th vs the Strikers.

8 – David Willey: It has been confirmed that Willey will play one more game on the 8th vs the Renegades and after that he will be leaving for the English ODI team.

9 – Jos Buttler: Has certainly played his last game with the Thunder having the bye this round and not playing again until the 11th.

10 – Jason Roy: Will be touch and go to play against the Hurricanes on the 8th, but would expect him to play and that one be his last.

11 – Sam Billings: Same as Roy, would expect his game on the 8th vs Hurricanes as his last.

12 – Mohammad Nabi: Would expect Nabi to play round 6 against the Scorchers on the 8th, but there is every chance that will be his last.  He may play the following round but it will be touch and go.

Incoming Players

1 – Shaun Marsh: Should return for the round 7 match on the 11th vs the Thunder.  At only $46,100 is worth a look, especially for their DGW that round.

2 – Nathan Lyon: Lyon should be available for us in round 7 vs the Thunder on the 13th.  Awkwardly priced at $88,000, but may be an option for their DGW in round 8.

3 – Usman Khawaja: Ussie will be touch and go to play for the Thunder against the Scorchers on the 11th, but should be playing against the Sixers on the 13th.  However at $113,600 it is very risky to go there.  Especially seeing he may only play one of their games in the DGW round.

4 – Cameron Bancroft: As with Shaun Marsh he should play on the 11th against the Thunder for round 7.  At almost rock bottom price of only $30,000, he is a huge consideration for that round with the Scorchers DGW.

5 – Kieron Pollard: Pollard’s first game is expected to be on the 22nd vs the Strikers in round 9.  Seeing that they have their bye week in round 8 and their DGW round 10, plus he is only priced at $50,000, he is almost a lock somewhere around that time.

6 – Joe Denly: Denly is joining the Sixers to help cover the outs of Roy and Billings to the England One Day Squad.  His first game is expected to be the 13th vs the Thunder but he hasn’t even been made available to select yet, so we have no idea where he will be priced at.

7 – Carlos Brathwaite: This is a huge inclusion for us from a Fantasy perspective.  Brathwaite is of course the West Indies T20 captain.  He is considered and all rounder and tends to bowl as the 3rd-4th bowler and bats at 6-8.  Price is yet to be announced but keep an ear out as if he is cheap, he is worth a look.  First game is likely to be the 13th vs the Thunder.

8 – Jackson Bird: Bird should be good to play the game on the 13th against the Thunder.  Priced at only $31,200 he is without a doubt worth a look if you need a cheap bowler.  He may need to come into everybody’s consideration for the round 8 DGW.

9 – Tim Bresnan: Bresnan is a direct replacement for Willey for the Scorchers.  He has played for them previously and did a great job.  He will fill that Willey bowling role so keep an eye on him and his price when it is released.  Should play the first game in round 7 on the 11th against the Thunder for thier DGW week.

10 – James Vince: Vince is coming into the Thunder side for the loss of Buttler to the English ODI side.  Should play his first game on the 11th vs the Scorchers which is also his DGW round.  Keep a close eye on pricing when released as he is a very good T20 batsman.

So that is it again for this round.  Any questions do not hesitate to hit us up on Twitter or Facebook.  Good luck over the next four rounds.  I think we will all need it.


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Written by Zane Scheffner (@OTLS_Zano).

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