Week 5 Schedule Analysis – RDT NBA

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Updated: November 12, 2017

We are now 1 month into the season and we are starting to see some trends emerge: The Cavs are horrible defensively. Chicago is just plain horrible. You must trust ‘The Process’. Guys with cool nicknames are having great seasons – The Greek Freak, The Brow and The Unicorn are showing the future is bright for the NBA.

We are also starting to see some trends from a Fantasy perspective. This year, more than ever, the 3 point shot is the king. Most teams are taking 20-30 3 point shots per game, with some consistently jacking 40 plus treys per game. In days gone by, it has been the guards and small forwards who would take the 3’s, but in 2017, even the Power Forward and Centre’s are regularly throwing them up – and hitting them!!

This has also led to an increase in overall points per game. Only 4 teams (as of Saturday morning) are averaging less than 100 points per game. Not surprisingly, these are the bottom 4 teams in the competition.

What all this means is that we have seen a definite jump in Fantasy scoring. Towards the end of last season, we used the following table to gauge how well we did. Take into account that this was the end of the season, when we had ‘full premium’ teams.

Less than 800 – Poor

800-900 – Average

900-1000 – Above Average

1000+ – Amazing

In the leagues I am in (3 leagues are in top 5 leagues in the competition), there have already been a number of 1000+ scores. We are going to need to re-evaluate are scoring assessments.

Less than 850 – Poor

850- 950 – Average

950-1050 – Above Average

1050+ – Amazing

The best way to get closer to the ‘Amazing’ bracket is to work the schedule. Give yourself the best chance to score. Trade in 4 Game players, trade out 2 game players. Also, keep an eye out for Dos’ Captain article each week. He is much more stat heavy than me, and always hands out some great information.

 

Schedule Breakdown

Trade Targets – 8 Game Teams

There are a bunch of 7 game teams in the next fortnight, but only two 8 game teams.

Minnesota – Do what ever you need to get in Karl-Anthony Towns this week. Sell your kids, a kidney, your house – all of them. It will be worth it. At the end of week 3, KAT had 100 MORE POINTS than his next highest scoring team mate. He is averaging a touch under 30 fantasy ppg, and there is no reason to think this won’t continue.

After missing a couple of games at the start of the season due to injury, a unique value pickup could be former Bull Jimmy Butler. After giving John Paxson and the Bulls the “It’s Hoiberg or me” ultimatum at the end of last season, he was reunited with former coach Tom Thibodeau in Minnesota. He is only averaging 17 Fppg, however he is working his way into a new system where he is not the superstar. His price is reflected in this, having already dropped over $1.5 million. I would expect him to drop again at the end of week 4, so you will be able to pick him up for under $10 million.

Portland – Once again, there is only one player for the Blazers that I would look at. Damian Lillard has also scored around 100 Fantasy points more than his nearest team mate. Portland play Denver (home), Orlando (home) and Sacramento (once away, once at home) this week, so there should be plenty of Fantasy points on offer.

Take note if you are looking to bring in a Laker this week, they only have 2 games in Week 6, so I would stay away.

Cut them to the G-League

There is only one team this week with 2 games – the star-studded Oklahoma City Thunder. Russell Westbrook (81%) and Carmelo Anthony (68%). Even though Westbrook has been scoring well with a 26 Fppg average, with just two games, he has to go. Anthony and fellow Team USA team mate Paul George haven’t been performing from a Fantasy perspective anyway, so now is a great way to move him on.

Lockout Details

I have added another section to the article from this week. Sportsdeck RDT NBA has a rolling lockout which means that players are not locked out until their first game of the week. How can you use this to your advantage? Well, the simplest strategy is to keep at least 1 trade up your sleeve if you can. For example, in week 5, Indiana have a Thursday lockout. Both Oladipo and Turner have quite high ownership, and with 3 games this week, you wouldn’t be looking to trade them out. Let’s say Turner rolls an ankle at training on Wednesday, and is out for the week. If you have already used your 3 trades, Turner stays on your court, and you get your emergency players score – usually sub 20 – instead of 60+ from Turner.

If you have a trade up your sleeve, you would have a look at other players with a Thursday lockout (ideally with 3 games for the week) such as Memphis’ Marc Gasol. He should be good for a 50+ and you have 30 extra points.

There is also the potential for a Vice Captain loophole, however I have discussed this with Captain Guru Dos, and we both agree that unless you are a NASA rocket scientist, the chances of stuffing this up is too high to risk. If you are going to do it, spend a LOT of time running scenarios to make sure you are not leaving yourself with a donut on court.

As mentioned above, OKC only have 2 games this week, and their first game is on Thursday. This means that you can hold a trade up your sleeve for Russ, Melo and PG13 and possibly trade them out on Wednesday or Thursday depending on who you are looking to bring in.

A Wednesday lockout is also good news for Kyrie Irving owners, after Aussie big man Aron Baynes accidentally broke the nose of ‘Uncle Drew’. There were also some concussion concerns, so you will get an extra day to check if he is going to be active for the first game. Keep a close eye out, as we have already seen Myles Turner miss multiple weeks with concussion.

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Written by Archie Keeler (@OTLSArchie)

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