The Fantasy Finals Draw – Who has the Easiest Fantasy Run?

Updated: July 25, 2017

So here we are again, at that time of the year when we are looking to finalise our teams for that Fantasy run home.  That time of the year we are right on the cusp of having a full team of premiums, and if you are really lucky, you may even be at the point of doing some luxury trades and moving on some not so premium premiums to guys that actually are scoring as premiums.

Where we started

Every year we know some teams are easier to score on than others, and therefore some teams have easier Fantasy runs home.  So we have gone and done the homework for you, and had a look at what each team is giving up in points and hundreds scored every week to work out not only who is easiest and hardest to score against, but who has the best Fantasy Finals runs home.

Now we aren’t going to bore you with every single number and calculation out there.  But we do want you to understand where these results have come from.  One point to note is that this is based on the numbers up to the end of round 18.  But it is also fair to say that 18 rounds of data give’s us a very good sample size.

Who is the hardest to score against?

The first thing that we have done is worked out what each team gives up in points, every round, and worked out an average.  Put simply, it looks like this.

Basically on average per game, Greater Western Sydney are giving up the least points and Fremantle the most points.

Who gives up the least 100’s?

We have then followed the exact same process with how many 100’s each team is giving up week to week. Here is how that looks.

So again based on average 100’s given up per week, Greater Western Sydney give up the least with North Melbourne giving up the most.

So, What Now?

Now we get to that point: the ‘so what’ test.  We have all this data, but what do we do with it?  There are 100’s of ways we could use it but we have identified one specific way to do so.  As you can see, each of the teams are ranked from the easiest to hardest to score on for both total points and 100’s.  Quite simply, we gave each team a 1-18 based on their ranking as to how easy or hard they are to score on for each category.  Then, we simply added those two ranks together to give us a strong idea of how hard a team is to score against.  This is how it looks.

Greater Western Sydney are both the hardest team to score on plus give up the least 100’s so they get 18th for both categories, giving them a 36 combined total.  Port Adelaide as another example are ranked 12th for total points and 9th for 100’s giving them a combined score of 21.  Saint Kilda are 2nd on total points and 3rd on 100’s conceded giving them a combined score of 5.  The higher the combined score, the harder a team is to score against.

Who Plays Who?

There it is in black and white – and pretty colours too mind you – a ranking sheet of who is the hardest to who is the easiest to score against this season so far in AFL Fantasy.  Let’s now take it one step further.  We used that combined total against every team and who they play for every game in the final four games of the year to calculate who has the best runs home.

Then, we combined each of those numbers to give us a grand total per team and then ranked who has the best run and who has the worst run in those last four weeks of the season.

The Final Results

Put as simply as we possibly can, Richmond have the best run home by quite a way, with Brisbane in second and North Melbourne in third.  Hardest run home is Geelong followed by West Coast and third hardest is the Western Bulldogs.

Now of course, there are other things you may need to consider with these numbers yourself.  We can do a lot for you, but not everything!  There are a couple of examples here of this.  Firstly, look at West Coast.  Round 1 of finals they play Saint Kilda who has a score of 5 against their names.  Easiest team to score on.  But then their last 3 are against Carlton, Greater Western Sydney and Adelaide, 6th, 1st and 2nd hardest to score on.   But then look at Port Adelaide on the other end of the scale who have a tough first game of finals versus Adelaide, but it then really opens up for their scoring the last three rounds.  All stuff you will need to think through.

That All Important Grand Final Week

The final calculations we have done is to rank a team’s potential for grand final week should you be lucky enough to get there.  Again, no need to bore you with all the data, but here are the results.

So that is it folks.  Plenty to ponder as always.  Now, runs home aren’t the be all and end all, just something worth considering.  It isn’t like you are going to trade Patrick Dangerfield away to somebody like Shaun Grigg just because of their respective runs home, but you may be tossing up between say Adam Treloar and Andrew Gaff and these results may help you make that decision.

Written by Zane Scheffner (@OTLS_Zano)

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