NRL Fantasy Butters Round 7 Break Even Analysis – Part 1

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Updated: April 13, 2016

Given we’re about a quarter of the way through the season I thought it would be a good time to take a more in depth look at teams Fantasy prospects. Part 1 of this analysis looks at Broncos,  Bulldogs, Cowboys, Dragons, Eels, Knights, Panthers and Rabbitohs.

Round 7 Break Even Analysis

Broncos

Jordan Kahu (WFB/CTR) has dropped $92K in recent weeks and has a BE this round of just 11 pts. He looms as an excellent potential money maker at just $196K. Kahu averaged just over 33 pts when playing wing in 2015. He has an excellent try scoring strike rate of 80% as a winger. On those numbers he could easily net $100k+ profit and could be a handy player come rd 12.

Corey Parker (BR) is also becoming very affordable having dropped $64K to $495k. He has a BE this round of 60 pts which is easily achievable. He’s currently averaging 59 mins a game not far off his 2015 average of 62. His minutes look very similar to last year apart from a 48-minute game in rd 2. All of his stats look very very close to his last seasons numbers. From the stats there appears to be nothing at all to worry about. If you own him keep the faith, the scores are coming. If you don’t, he’s a bargain well worth contemplating.

Ben Hunt (HLF) only rose in value by $1k this round and is still $47k under his starting price. Hunt should be a careful consideration for owners of Mbye and Milford who will both get a mention.

Anthony Milford (Half) scored a modest 40 points last round and lost $2k. He comes into rd 7 with a BE of 59-points. The Milf only surpassed that score in four games out of 24 in 2015. The problem most Milford owners will have is that their like the proverbial gambler on a poker machine that’s just been paying out! They just can’t not fathom the possibility that the machine will stop paying! If you have Milford then you need to ask yourself this. From this round forward (past rd Scores are gone – they don’t count) will Milford average the points he’s priced at. At $468K he should score on average 52 points per game. Which is almost 12 Points a game above his 2015 average! Take your winnings and change machines! Invest in Hunt or SJ!

James Roberts (CTR) has shown what he can do in the last few weeks. At $374k he’s only $18k over his starting price and has a BE of 27.

Andrew McCullough (HKR) – Honorable Mention…. How have 8.2% of Fantasy coaches not bailed out yet? BE of 55. He’s lost $84K now. If you have him, I think you trade him this week or you may as well hold him and hope Nikorima somehow disappears for a while. After his next price drop he should be near enough to bottoming out – you’d hope….

 

Bulldogs

Kerrod Holland (CNTR). Like all Fantasy coaches I get some right and some wrong. Saifiti out last round to Kerrod Holland was one of the smartest trades I’ve made this season. He’s got great defence, can bust a tackle or three and is probably the clubs best goal kicker. He likely has 3 games before Stanley is fit enough to be considered – and in that time it may well be a case of Stanley needing to be considered. He will also likely play in Rds 12 and 18 with Morris on Origin duties. If you didn’t grab him last week he’s jumped $41K to $188K but also has a BE of -16. A great trade out for Saifiti via a DPP BR/CTR like Green of Ben Henry.

Josh Jackson (BR) looms as a good value POD pick up. He’s dropped $75K to just $357K and with the reduced interchange is even more likely to be a set and forget 80 minute choice for Hasler each week. He averaged 50 pts a round during 2015 and with a PPM that equates to a 55 pt average playing 80 mins. He made a slowish start last season as well. There’s no reason why his average wont sort itself out over the longer term.

Moses Mbye (HLF) owners got lucky again this round with a 61 point game that almost covered his BE. He still lost $1k and comes into rd 7 on a BE of 56. Take away a freakish against the run-of-play 90m pick up and scoot away try and his score would have been 44 points. Holland’s presence also takes away his goal kicking points. Just like Milford, Mbyes priced at 50 pts per game now – he only scored above 50 points in 3 games out of 17 starting in the halves last year. He also only averaged 36 points a game as a half last year. To think he’s got a long term improvement of 14 points a game in him is incredibly optimistic. If you have him – you’ve had a win… Change machines – this one wont keep paying for the long term.

 

Cowboys

Michael Morgan (HLF) could be a nice value POD choice if you need somebody to trade Cody Walker to. He’s dropped just over $50K to $331K. Morgan bagged 11 trys from 17 games starting in the halves last year. His average in the halves was a handy 46 points. So far this season he’s only scored 2 tries from 6 games for an average of 34 points. He will deliver scores in the 20’s sometimes but has some big games in him as well to lift that average. He’s basically another Mbye or Milford except he hasn’t gone off yet!

Matthew Scott (FR) is slipping further and further under the radar at present. He’s lost $70K in value, down to just $347K. In 2015 he averaged 54 minutes for 47 points. In 2014 he averaged 56 minutes for 53 points. So far in 2016 he’s getting 49 minutes for 36 points. Could just be a case of getting old given he’s now 31. His scores do seem to be deteriorating over time. Still one to be mindful of should the Cowboys have an injury or suspension hit their props.

Jonathon Thurston (HLF) is still making a slowish start to the season. He scored a respectable 45-points this week dropping to $449K, $79K under his starting price. Once Thurston got going in 2015 he didn’t stop! He comes into this round with a BE of 57, a score he surpassed in 13 out of 21 games last season!
Let’s be real here – if you have Mbye or Milford – you can literally straight swap to Thurston. If somebody asked you in January if you would take that straight swap in Rd 7 if Thurston dropped and Mbye/Milford went up….. You would have said yes in a heartbeat!

 

Dragons

Kalifa Faifai Loa (Wing) reappears on the wing for the Dragons looking quite inviting at $230k. Don’t be fooled. He’s always been about a 28 point winger on average. There may be $40K value there unless he got seriously lucky putting some quick scores together. Red Flag Waved!

Russel Packer (FR) has likely peaked. He has been a bore, never producing anything exciting to kick his price rises along – but likewise never failing to hit his 30-33 points either. His price wont likely drop and he could still jag a couple of scores to kick it along. So not a desperate trade – will also be handy for byes.

Mitch Rein (HKR) is very close to a full time 80 min dummy half. So far this season he has played the full minutes in 3 out of 6 games with two games above 70 mins and a low game of 64 minutes back in Rd 1. He’s averaging 51 points due to a sluggish start in the first two rounds. Over the last 4 games he’s averaged 60 points and that’s without scoring any trys. Rein went up in price by $25k this week and is now $8k above his starting price of $446k. At a 60 average he is worth $540k and with a BE of just 30 points this week he looks set to start climbing quickly. Great for byes given only the Dragons and Eels play both of the first two Origin Bye Rounds.

Jack de Belin (BR) should be on everybody’s radar by now. Since starting at lock in Rd 3, he’s looked an 80 minute player, apart from an early mark after 62 in Rd 5 when the game was out of reach. He’s smashing the 60 barrier with ease playing for 80 minutes. de Belin’s already risen by $39k to $468k and with a BE of just 39 looks to be heading toward the $550k barrier! Some concerns – he was reportedly struggling through a shoulder injury last week which was causing him quite a bit of distress. I’d be keeping a look out for updates on that situation. Also, Mike Cooper’s been playing sub 50 minute games from the bench the last two weeks. He’s well capable of playing 60+ himself. Do the Dragons need de Belin playing 80 every week? Only time will tell with this one.

 

Eels – I’ll cover a few here due to the Eels bye round coverage.

Nathan Peats (HKR) enters this round with some strain on his BE (65). He’ll be gold for the Origin affected mid season playing all 4 of the largest bye rounds. Not one to grab this week unless you’re needing to jump off Garvey and haven’t pulled the trigger yet. Certainly one to watch closely in coming weeks. Here’s hoping he posts a couple of low scores….

Kieran Foran (HLF) has been on a little rush with scores of 50, 43 and 59 (try assisted) in the last 3 weeks. He comes into the round on a BE of 22 and looks very inviting but I think he’s actually very trappy. Around 30% of his scoring is dependent on attacking stats. His kicking meters haven’t improved from last year with his best game so far this season being just 166m. He will be handy for byes but I don’t think you can carry him for half a season on that basis alone? At this stage I personally think Morgan (30k cheaper and a 6pt higher average last season) would be a better gamble in that price range?

Corey Norman (HLF) is the more dominant general play kicker at present. Despite this, his scores are also highly dependent on attacking stats. Apart from his injury impacted Rd 1, he has averaged almost 45 points a game this season. Like Foran, he looks to mid-range for my liking with not enough upside, again I’d prefer Morgan in that price range.

Michael Gordon (WFB) is a hold unless your upgrading him to a keeper. He will be handy during byes and despite some peoples expectations is actually scoring about right. He should average 40 points long term and is at 36 at present. His scores will be a mix of bust and boom. His BE this round is 36. A trade for RTS would be justified.

Manu Ma’u (BR) is one of the Eels I think I’d prefer for mid-season. If you haven’t got him as yet and are considering grabbing him – hold off this week. He had a low game of 32 points last round and his BE for Rd 7 is a healthy 57 points. He isn’t likely to go up much but if he goes a little low again this week his price could start shifting down over the next fortnight. Here’s hoping…

Tepai Moeroa (BR) has been much improved since moving to Lock. With Watmough’s injury forced retirement he can stop looking over his shoulder. Moeroa’s minutes have been frustrating in recent weeks. After playing bang on 56 minutes for the first 3 rounds his minutes dropped to around the 45 minute mark in Rds 4 and 5. He bounced back in Rd 6 with 69 minutes and 50 points. A head knock around the time he normally goes off gave Arthur a free interchange so long as Tepai returned within the allotted 15 minutes. Beau Scott who is normally an 80 minute player, has struggled for minutes with injury affected games and only played 34, this likely contributed to Moeroa’s playing out the match. Moeroa seems to have plenty of value left in him at $344k with a BE of 28. I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him as yet this season.

Junior Paulo (FR) has been a revelation so far this year. He’s playing between 50 and 60 minutes most weeks and starting to hit scores in the 40’s and 50’s with some consistency. He has bagged 2 tries to help his numbers but close to the line looks near impossible to stop. I don’t see why he wont score some more. At $374k with a BE of 35 he is one to consider if your looking for some Eels players for mid-season.

Semi Radradra (WFB) has me stumped. This guy had over a 100% try scoring strike rate and in a stronger revamped Eels outfit he’s scored in only 1 game out of 6 this season. He’s dropped all the way to $331K and is weighed down with a BE of 70 points this week. He is without a doubt the Eels greatest strike weapon and whilst Arthur’s lads have a 4-2 record for the season they must be assessing Radradra’s blunted impact in games. High on my watch list…..

 

Knights

Jacob Saifiti (BR) has had a good run but it looks over. There’s not a lot of stand out downgrade options. The best appears to be Holland via a DPP (CNTR/BR) player like Green or Henry. He should just plateau this week with a BE of 24 but will start losing money after that.

Daniel Saifiti (FR) is a bit trappy to buy now. He has a BE of just 10 this week but with other troops returning he looks to likely to be restricted to 30 minutes for 20 points so you’ll struggle to make cash from him now.

Will Pearsal (HLF) is being used as back up bench hooker and played just 16 minutes last round.

Jack Stockwell (FR) has always had a great PPM. His promotion to starting FR could see him finally become Fantasy viable. At $304k and a BE of 29 it could be a good time to pick him up. Knights play Rd 12 but have byes in 15 and 18. If he starts getting 50 Minutes he should average 45 points and climb up to near $400K by Rd 14.

Pat Mata’utia (CTR) has a peaking look about him. With a BE of 30 there’s no rush to make a move on him. He could jag a couple of scores and kick on a bit.He is worth upgrading or if you want to take the cash and run then a downgrade to Holland makes sense or Lolohea could also be a wild card option.

Dane Gagai (CTR) has moved to FB this season and looked decent last round. I think some people may get inflated excpectations of him. He should average 40 points a round at Fullback based on the 8 games he’s played there. Those 40 points will come in the form of rocks and diamonds. Based on that he probably only has $60K or so value in him and not likely to be worth it.

 

Panthers

Peter Wallace (HLF) has had a resurgence since taking on dummy half duties. He’s gone up in price by $69k and has a BE of just 10 points this week. The reality is however that Segeyaro will be back very soon and Wallace will return to his typical halves scoring.

Te Maire Martin (HLF) has proven a decent a cash grab for those that got in at ground level. He’s now made $126k and enters Rd 7 with a BE of 15 points. With Segeyaro due back it appears way to late to get on board.

Isaah Yeo (CTR/BR) looks like a solid choice in that difficult center position. His minutes and role in the back-row look secure and he should average just over 40 pts which would put him among the top centers. Priced at $330k with a BE of 23 he’s not a bad choice if you just want to secure a good center for the long term. He’s likely to peak at around $370k-$380k so there’s not great value there – more just the security of having a reliable and consistent scorer.

Bryce Cartwright (BR) is rewarding those that started with him and kept the faith. At $400k and having gained $43k so far this season he still looks to have plenty of value. His BE is only 28 and if he maintains a 50 point average moving forward he could reach $450k+.

Trent Merrin (BR) finally hit his straps last round. I’m not just talking about his score – he looked energetic and involved, a far cry from the lethargic appearance he’s shown over the early rounds. At $453k with a BE of 40 he’s still $32k under his opening price. A decent choice if you’re not a believer in the Taupau shift to BR?

 

Rabbitohs

Cody Walker (HLF) has made a motza, $208k to be precise. He still has a low BE of 23 and plenty of cash left in him. With Adam Reynolds return, Walker has been relegated to NSW Cup. He wont lose money not playing so I’m happy to hold him for a few weeks and let the dust settle. Who knows – Keary may not perform and get dropped. If you have the depth and other pressing issues, it may be worth just sitting back on this one.

Kirisome Auva’a (CTR) almost caught me out in my desperation to offload some dead wood. Unfortunately Johnston is out with a hamstring strain and when he returns Goodwin will likely return to center squeezing Auva’a back out of the side.

Nathan Brown (FR) looks very trappy. The Rabbitohs have had missing middle forwards all season but are starting to get back to full strength there. Surgess returns to Lock this week and George and Thomas should start building back up there minutes. Brown looks great at the moment but the reality is that he will dwindle back to being a 30 minute bench forward scoring low 20’s.

If you’re one of the 3.59% of people that own Cameron McInnes (HKR) you should be starting to keep an eye on catching him at his peak. His BE this round is just 20 points courtesy of his Rd 5 97-point Boom! He looks a high 40’s player moving forward. Once his BE hits 45 points you would be wise to take the money and run. It could even be the ideal time now to trade him to Mitch Rein (BE 30) who will be very handy for bye rounds.

Paul Carter (BR) got very lucky for his owners in so many ways… If you didn’t bail out last week it’s definitely time to now…. No – he wont start again, he wont play big minutes and he wont make good scores on a weekly basis!

Chris Grevsmuhl (BR) looks good value at present. Since starting at BR 2 weeks ago he’s played 80 and 73 minutes. Only time will tell how he’ll do as a full time edge forward but he looks capable of a high 40’s average if your inclined to take a punt. At $328K and a BE of 22 he’s a decent option if your looking for a slight upgrade from Saifiti or Carter. No guarantees but worth a punt.

Hymel Hunt (CTR) is starting to look peaked unless he can jag another couple of big scores to rocket his price back up. No rush to trade out at this point though.

George and Tom Burgess (FR) have both returned from injury and are both making a slow start whilst dropping a bundle of cash. George has dropped $82k and has a BE of 55. Thomas has dropped $49k and has a BE of 60. Both should start building some match fitness and finding some form in the weeks ahead. Keep careful watch on both of them as they are bound to provide great value if you catch them at the bottom.

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