NRL Fantasy: Bye Planning 2016 – Or Bye Harm Minimisation 2016
I’ve include 3 charts for everybody here:
2014 Bye Schedule – To highlight how different things have become
2016 Bye Chart – This shows the teams actually playing each bye round
2016 Origin Player Availability – Showing how many games origin players are available for between Rd 12 and 19
In 2014 there were 5 teams playing each pre-origin round with another 4 that played 2 out of the 3. Bye planning was tricky but doable.
Fast forward 2 years to this seasons Bye Chart and you will notice the following.
Only 1 team plays all 3 pre-origin rounds – Parramatta
Only 1 other team plays both the first 2 pre-origin rounds – Dragons
Only 1 other team plays both the 2nd and 3rd pre-origin round – Roosters
6 teams play the first major bye round but not the 2nd
6 teams play the second but not the first
Apart from Eels, Dragons Roosters only 4 teams play 2 of the major pre-origin bye rounds – split (Origin 1 and Origin 3) – Tigers, Cowboys, Raiders, Bulldogs.
To have 17 players available for both Rd 12 and 15 You would need 10 players from the Eels and Dragons, 7 players from (Tigers, Cowboys, Raiders, Bulldogs, Broncos and Knights) and another 7 Players from (Roosters, Warriors, Sea Eagles, Titans, Souths and Storm). You can’t have any Sharks or Panthers – and you’re allowed to either have 1 Origin player or 1 inactive player on your roster – but not both.
Now remember how you need 10 players from Eels and Dragons – Well guess which two teams have a bye the following week!
The same scenario then plays out if you want to have 17 players available for both Rd 15 and 18 – just two different pools of teams you need to have 7 players from for each round. Now you want to be stacked with Eels and Roosters players though…..and guess which two teams have a bye the following week…….
The bottom line is this – The Bye Structure this year wins hands down – you can’t beat it! You’ll burn a lot of trades trying and likely just bring yourself undone in the process.
So the best strategy would seem to be one of harm minimisation!
To start with – Make sure you’re fielding 17 players in Rounds 13 and 16. You don’t want to compound the damage by being short in those rounds.
I’d suggest aiming to have no more than 5 (Eels/Dragons) players for Rd 12 and 5 (Eels, Roosters) players for Rd 15. I’d further suggest to aim to pick up Rad Rad and Peats coming in to Origin – with 3 Decent non-orign Dragons and then having 3 decent Roosters coming into Origin two. That leaves you 20 players for those two mini bye rounds where you’ll likely have a couple of inactive players but hopefully at least have 18 available.
From there – aim to have players that at least play two of those big bye rounds: Tigers, Cowboys, Raiders, Bulldogs.
Aim to upgrade any Broncos or Knights non-keepers Between Origin 1 and 2.
Be aware that the following clubs only play 1 out of the 3 pre-origin rounds: Warriors, Sea Eagles, Titans, Souths, Storm, Sharks, Panthers.
There’s to many quality players in those clubs to not have them – but try to avoid getting caught with non keepers where possible and just wear it on the few worth holding.
Do your best to have as few inactive players on your roster as possible.
Eels won’t have any fantasy relevant Origin players so we’ll leave that there. BUT try to prefer Origin guns from Broncos, Knights, Warriors, Sea Eagles, Titans, Souths, Storm, Sharks and Panthers OVER Dragons,Tigers, Cowboys, Raiders, Roosters and Bulldogs.
Lastly – take a good look at your squad coming out of Origin 2 and try not to get caught with your pants down to much in Rd 19 where 4/8 teams available in Rd 18 have byes in Rd 19….. Cruel isn’t it lol……. and by the way – those 4 teams are the 4 other teams that play 2 out of the 3 big origin bye rounds split!
That’s the best I can come up with – feel free to add any other insights – but it seems that simply focusing on having the best squad you can and trying to minimise the impact of byes is the only smart way to go!
