NRL Fantasy: The Art of Trading

The Art of Trading has been my biggest downfall in NRL Fantasy. So I write this article not from the platform of past success but from the understanding of past mistakes.

Being a successful fantasy coach is about 20% picking a strong starting squad and 80% trading smart.

So what makes smart trading? Many of you won’t like the answer….. Quite a lot!

In this article I’ll attempt to touch on the multitude of factors that come into play in trading your way to the top in NRL Fantasy (this article would transfer to Supercoach and other forms of fantasy sports).

 

 

The first steps to becoming the Wolf of Wall Street

The trading aspect of Fantasy parallels any other form of trading. The basis of any trading must be rooted in tangible gains and the most basic principal of successful trading is very simple – Buy Low and Sell High!

Every trade should have clear purpose and understanding of the gains both in terms of cash and points. Trading in NRL Fantasy is often conducted in pairs – but the combined effect of the coupled trades should always improve your team’s cash growth and points potential. Whilst the general aim is to Buy Low and Sell High – You also have to know when to cut your losses and jump ship!

The ideal scenario in NRL Fantasy is to roll through multiple phases of cash-cows. When a new cash cow arises in round 8, you look for a cow who’s price gains are slowing to trade in. The capital gains from your initial investment can then be used to gun up other players in your scoring 17.

When looking at a trade or pair of trades think about these two aspects. Do these trades improve my cash growth and by how much? Do these trades improve my top 17 players scoring potential and by how much?

Remember, whilst 34 trades sounds like a lot – it really represents 17 pairs of trades in 26 rounds. So for 9 rounds of the season you need to not trade at all and this equation doesn’t take into account triple trading during pre-origin bye rounds. So be careful not to waste them.

Lets look at some pitfalls…..

Chasing Last Weeks Points

One of the overwhelming pitfalls in trading lies in chasing last weeks points. Corey Oates comes out with a two season high score of 66 pts in Rd 1 and 3,328 coaches are jumping to bring him in thinking he’s the next Semi Radradra…He’s not!

But none the less, he becomes the 3rd most traded-in player after round 1.

Other players from Rd 1 that this could apply to would include Greg Bird (Sorry Jay – I know you disagree with me here but we’ll diagnose that for you in a later paragraph), Manu Mau and in lower price brackets Frank-Paul Nuuausala (FPN) and Tim Simona.

Fantasy coaches in general have a very poor concept of the word average – no offence intended – but it’s true.

If a player like FPN has a 2015 season avg of 25 pts that doesn’t mean he comes out and scores 23-26 pts every week. He’ll be over it, under it, all around it…. but if you add his scores together and divide them by games played – you’ll get 25. FPN had a 47 last season – but at the end of the day his average was 25… which means he often scored under that mark as well. You need to know players past scoring history or take the time to research it.

There are past stats in NRL Fantasy both in summary form and game by game – you may need to use a calculator – sorry! You also need to look at where a player’s surprising score came from and assess it as either just one of his high games in his normal scoring spread OR for some reason – a new norm?

A word or warning though…….

A Leopard Doesn’t Change it’s Spots – But it can rip you to pieces!

This applies both ways, Greg Bird scoring 66 points is no indication on it’s own that he has suddenly transformed from being a 38 pt avg player (a mark he has hit in both 2014 and 2015) to being a 50pt avg gun… it would be equally ridiculous to think that RTS has suddenly dropped from being a 50 pt avg player to a 20pt avg player. You need to develop a good understanding of players base stats and scoring profiles.

In 2015 Bird averaged 26 tackles, 3 missed tackles and 113.5 meters gained. In his stella Rd 1 performance he made 25 tackles and 158m against a makeshift rebuilding Knights outfit lacking experience. His score also comprised of 2 TA’s, 2 LBA’s, 1 TB, 4 OL’s and just 1 missed tackle and 1 penalty blotting his scorepad. The key numbers to note are his base stats. If Birds score comprised 35-40 tackles then there would be some room for consideration however his base stats are pretty normal. To jump from a 38 pt player to a 50pt player would require his improving his attacking stats by an extra 12 pts a game week in week out…. unfortunately they don’t play Newcastle every week.

 

See Players For What They Are – Not For What You Want Them To BE!

Players generally play the way they play. Fantasy forums get flooded with great sounding over analytical breakdowns of why a player will see significant improvements in fantasy output – it’s pretty much all rubbish. Jennings won’t impact on Semi’s scoring this year – he reached huge heights last year and may not get as high – but he’ll still be up there – and Jennings will have almost zilch to do with it. Theories on kicking meters, left side/right side combinations… it all sounds wonderful and so analytical that it must be true – yet these players hit the same averages year in year out in most cases.

Backs increase pts based on change in role. Forwards increase pts based on change in minutes, with role sometimes also playing a part. If you’re reasoning for a player suddenly being a gem is based on anything other than these two simple principals then take your rose colored glasses off – and look hard at the players base stats including negatives. Unless there’s a significant shift there then your likely heading for a big dose of regret.

 

Look For Busts Not Booms!

Fantasy Coaches tend to look for player Booms like Oates, Mau and Greg Bird – Remember the Golden Rule – Buy Low, Sell High…. Oates just had one of his outlier games for the season – you missed it! He just price jumped $29K and the law of averages now suggests you are paying more for a player who will avg under his 30pts/game over the remainder of the season…. That’s how averages work!

Look for Busts not Booms. Kade Snowden earned the wrath of Brownie conceding 3 penalties in just 28 minutes before being hooked from the field for just 13pts…. One coaches pain could become your gain. He dropped $28K and now carries a BE of 78pts. I hope he gets a late reprieve and plays this week! He’s definitely a player to watch and potentially pick up for a bargain when his price bottoms out! Buy Low – Sell High!

Thursday night (round 2) Aiden Tolman left the field concussed and stranded on 14 points. Low scores like these have the potential to dramatically drop a good players price over a 5 week period.

But be warned, you have to have a solid reason and form based evidence, for believing a player will turn it around and bounce back – otherwise you end up with a squad full of cheap “yesterday’s Stagg-nating heroes.”

Avoiding Sideways Trading

Let’s keep this really simple – If your trade or pair of trades don’t leave your squad in a clearly better position with cash growth and scoring potential in your top 17 players – then don’t make them!

If they do then they won’t be sideways!

Injured Players

There are two aspects here – Trading or holding an injured player and judging opportunities presented by injured players. With regard to trading or holding injured players you need to weigh up several factors – the length of the injury, the loss of points in your 17 by holding and is the player a cow or keeper?

It all comes down to two key factors that you need to weigh up, points and cash.

Often player injuries present cash cow or possible value buy opportunities. Be careful – what’s the length of time the player will be out, how safe is it that the player you see as an opportunity will fill that role for the duration, how sure are you that they will actually get the bigger scores and price rises to make it worthwhile.

The general rule of thumb for these situations is $100K!  If you’re not going to make $100K minimum then it’s not worth it. Just because Greg Inglis gets injured and will be out for 5 weeks doesn’t mean that Alex Johnston will pile on the 50’s in that time! Be careful and be realistic.

I think that’s enough tips for now – We won’t venture into the multi-variable calculus world of bye planning to much – My simple advice on that for this year is don’t bother. Trade smart during mid season based on round availability and make sure you at least have a full squad in rounds 13, 16 and 19. No teams are going to be fielding 17 players every round without exhaustive trading and compromising their team.

All the best for the rounds ahead – Butters.

By the way…

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