NRL Fantasy: The Carter Conundrum

In the preseason, there was plenty of hype for former Titans bad-boy and now Rabbitohs new recruit, Paul “The Hurricane” Carter.

Carter started his NRL career at the Titans after being recruited from the Bulldogs Holden Cup team and it wasn’t long before he found himself in trouble with the law – much like the last “Hurricane Carter” to compete in sport at an elite level.

After 9 months in the NRL wilderness, working as a labourer for minimum wage, Carter was thrown a lifeline by the Rabbitohs where he played 3 games in 2015 off the bench.

The preseason hype around Carter focussed on his starting price of $172,000, considered very cheap for a back-row forward who could play big minutes.

As always there were plenty of doubters, labelling Carter a trap and quietly sniggering to themselves as almost 15% of teams started the season with Carter, many of which had him in their 17.

Sniggers turned to stunned head shakes and eye rolls as Carter posted a round 1 score of 54 and the Pro-Carter coaches basked in the glory of a score far exceeding even their expectations.

His score even cost one celebrity coach, Adrian Buttery, a month ban from NRL Fantasy Weapons after he made a bet with his arch nemesis, Ron Hall, that Carter wouldn’t score 40.

But is Carter a genuine cash cow hopeful in 2016? Will the doubters be proven right in the fullness of time or will the faithful be rewarded?

The stats on Carter say, trap – sort of, maybe, kinda. Yep, that’s clear as mud – but hopefully it’ll be a little bit clearer after reading on.

In 2014 at the Titans, Carter averaged just 24.48 points per game playing just 45.48 minutes. Certainly nothing to write home about.

However that average does present some value for Carter – if he reaches that mark again he’ll see a price rise to approximately $218,000 – almost $50k – a reasonable cash out for a trade.

But if you’re expecting huge points regularly from Carter, it looks like the doubters and Adrian Buttery might just be right – his numbers in 2014 do not inspire much confidence.

In fact, when Carter played more than 50 minutes, he only averaged 23 points.

It is important to keep in mind that this was 2014, a lot has happened since then, including a stint in the NRL wilderness and a change in coach to one of the best in the game in recent years – Michael McGuire.

Looking at the figures above you could be forgiven for thinking that Carter has a poor work ethic, but you’d be wrong. Carter makes plenty of tackles, does his fair share of running the ball and is always an option close to the line in attack.

What brings Carter unstuck is discipline.

Take for example his 54 points in round 1 2016, the most recent example, yes he scored 54 points, including a try…..but have you taken a moment to look at the deductions?

Five (5) Missed Tackles. Three (3) Penalties.

That’s a total of -16 points in deductions.

Now take his try out of the round 1 equation, as we know he won’t score every week…….suddenly he’s looking at a 46pt game, still great at $172k.

He played 74mins due to injuries galore for the Rabbitohs – it’s safe to assume normally he’d average about 54mins which based on his PPM (minus the try) would result in a 33pt average.

Still not bad especially for a round 1, 17th man AND he’ll increase to a value of nearly $300,000 for $130,000 gain.

Even still he looks juicy doesn’t he?

Lets now look forward, taking into account a Rabbitohs pack that hasn’t seen carnage like this since the 1950s when the Victorian Government introduced Myxomatosis into the wild Rabbit populations.

Carter is set for a starting spot for quite a few rounds yet, possibly the rest of the season, he’s priced at $198k as at the end of Round 1 AND he has a break even of -4.

If Carter averages just 33 points a game from here on out, he will make $100,000 minimum before the Rabbitohs pack is back to full strength.

It’s vital to note, that based on his track record, Carter’s rise won’t be a straight line skyrocketing skyward – it will be a jagged, two steps forward one step back, line of inconsistency and frustration – but the cash is there to be made.

If you have Carter, hold him – it’s not even a question – you just might not want to play him in your 17 every round.

If you don’t, then he will cost you two trades – one to bring him in, one to cash him out – so the question becomes, what is a trade worth to you?