NRL Fantasy: The Replacements (HOK)

“Pain heals, chicks dig scars and glory lasts for ever….” – Shane Falco (played by Keanu Reeves) in “The Replacements” – Released 2000.

Thankfully, for NRL Fantasy coaches, there is no pain, but if you win, there is plenty of glory. As for chicks digging scars….well there are plenty of fantasy widows about at this time of year so let’s just move on!

Unfortunately for NRL Fantasy coaches, there are injuries to star players and round 1 saw plenty of them – two of the hardest hit were pre-season gun hookers Michael Lichaa (1-3 months) and James Segeyaro (upto 6 weeks).

For many coaches, these injuries will force a reluctant early season trade – so with that in mind, who are the replacements?

Nathan Peats – Eels – $489,000

For those with a bit of cash up their sleeve a straight gun to gun swap would see Peats bought in for Segeyaro (or Lichaa). Having put up one of the highest scores of the round, Peats resolved any worries coaches might have had about his likelihood of playing 80-minutes. He also put to rest whispers of a tentative return from his broken neck late last year, with a stunning 60 tackles. Peats also provides excellent bye coverage.

 

Jake Friend – Roosters – $470,000

Jake Friend was strong despite the thrashing his side copped on the weekend. His 57 tackles and 66 points put him on par with Nathan Peats after round 1.

When you consider that Mitchell Pearce won’t be back until at least round 9 and that Jake Friend is the sole captain at the Roosters, it would be a solid assumption that he’d have an increased role and would be looking to lead from the front.

Friend works as a 3rd playmaker for the Roosters and also racks up a few kick metres through the course of the game.

Currently owned by only 3.17% of NRL Fantasy coaches, he’s definitely a viable option that could pay big dividends over the next 8 rounds.

 

What if you don’t have the cash? Who are the cows?

Craig Garvey – Bulldogs – $130,000

Garvey holds huge appeal for many who are looking to free up the cash in Segeyaro or Lichaa, upgrade elsewhere and turn injury into profit. Bulldogs coach, Des Hasler, has been a fan of playing 80-minute hookers for years. He played Ballin 80-minutes at Manly, while both Ennis and Lichaa have played 80 at the Dogs most games. It’s a fair assumption to make that Garvey will play 80 to.

However one important to note is that if Garvey isn’t fit to play 80, then Hasler also has Josh Jackson and Josh Reynolds, who are both capable of playing in the hooker role and have done in the past.

Garvey played seven games in 2015, averaging just over 23 minutes. He scored at a rate of .68ppm – stepping up to 80-minutes will be a BIG ASK.

Expect Garvey to score around the 40-45pt mark, IF he plays 80-minutes and taking into account fatigue as the match goes on.

This makes him a very good looking cash cow and a potentially solid member of your 17. It will come down to minutes played and like most things in NRL Fantasy, at this stage, it’s a gamble he’ll play 80. But given Hassler’s history and coaching style, it looks like a safer gamble than most.

 

Tyler Randell – Knights – $297,000

Randell put in a huge performance versus the Titans, playing 80-minutes and scoring 62 points. The question is no longer one of capability, but one of consistency.

Will coach Nathan Brown continue to play Randell for a full 80-minutes and keep Levi out of the side? Articles popped up just before round 1 kick off stating that Levi had been dropped cold for his performance, or lack thereof, in the trials.

As a result the Knights went into round 1 without a backup hooker, though there was plenty of speculation that Bhana might spell Randell at dummy half. It never happened.

Team lists will be a huge factor in Tyler Randell’s value as a replacement. He’s $160k more expensive than Garvey, but likely has just as much to make. His points per minute in round 1 was .775, significantly up on his 2015 average of .70. If he can continue to play 80 minutes and keep his work rate as high as this, he’ll average 60 in 2015 and be worth well over the $500k mark.

It’s a big IF, but if this is how the season plays out, then Randell becomes one of those fantasy unicorns – a cash cow gun!

More importantly, he would also save you a trade compared to Garvey, who when Lichaa is back, will be relegated to NSW Cup.

Watch for Team Lists and if Levi is named be wary!

If it’s all Randell, it’d be hard not to grab him this week.

 

Other less secure options

Zach Dockar-Clay and Te Maire Martin are in the running to fill the hole left by James Segeyaro and both could see significant minutes. However, Elijah Taylor has been known to fill in at the hooker position while Tyrone Peachy is able to play anywhere in the spine and second row – meaning neither rookie prospect is guaranteed a start. These two are definitely a wait and see proposition.

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